Bernie Sanders

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Do you stand with Sanders?

Yes
33
63%
No
12
23%
I don't know
1
2%
Not anymore
1
2%
Who cares [note: you should]
5
10%
 
Total votes: 52
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Sanvich Hoovy
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Sanvich Hoovy » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:26 pm

Holy Shit he went out guns blazin at that debate tonight. Straight up called the Republicans retarded. God I hope he wins Michigan, if he doesn't then his Campaign is gonna lose all it's momentum. If anyone here lives in Michigan, get out and vote Tuesday, and tell EVERYONE YOU KNOW to do so as well
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narwal
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by narwal » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:46 am

Bernie's already donezo, kappa
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Ian7 » Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:30 pm

He might seem like he's really behind, but honestly it can swing in his favor.
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Django » Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:53 pm

No because America is stupid
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by KoD » Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:06 pm

narwal wrote:Bernie's already donezo, kappa
Care to elaborate??? Clinton holds a minor lead after primary's and caucuses in her BEST states. She doesn't have that favorable territory anymore.

Sanders has won three of the last four contests. Overall, Clinton has won a total 12 states and Sanders has won eight. That means we have 30 states to go.

In the 19 states that have voted so far, Clinton won 671 delegates.
In those same 19 states, Sanders won a total of 498 delegates.


A little more than 40% of the states have chosen Sanders while 58% of the states chose Clinton. Similarly, Sanders has grabbed 42% of the delegates and Clinton has won 58%.

All of this suggests the race is not only close but also early. Meanwhile, 62% of the states including New York, California and Florida haven't even voted. The race is actually incredibly competitive particularly when we consider most Americans hadn't heard of Sanders before last year.

I can go on about how Sanders was well behind Clinton in the Kansas and Nebraska polls, yet he won with practically landslides in those states. You can go ahead and toss the polls out the window when you have an energized base especially if it's the youth vote and they actually are excited enough to turn out to vote.
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narwal
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by narwal » Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:43 pm

I was primarily joking, but I truly think the chances of Sanders actually winning the primary are incredibly slim.

Clinton is going to win Florida. Most likely by a landslide. Bernie's got a chance in California. I'm honestly not sure about New York.

That leaves Jersey, Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and Illinois. Bernie's going to need most of those to win - and that's a fuckin' stretch, m8. You can't really "throw out" 20-point leads, and Hillary has such leads in 4 of those.

It's possible, but the climb will be steep.

I really, really hope he gets the nomination. Fuck a Hillary v Trump race.
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by KoD » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:13 pm

I agree, it will be no easy task. Compounded by the fact that we are looking at vital states all on the exact same day. Volunteer efforts for phonebanking and all that is going to have to be through the roof. Michigan will be a huge test, Sanders has been down 20-30+ points for months in preliminary polls. Today a poll has him down 6 pts +/-6. That's obviously no trend, but it does go to show how inconsistent polls can be and how much of an impact days of high activism can make. Unfortunately there's not a huge number of preliminary polls available from a number of those states, but Sanders has decent ratings in California and Ohio - both majorly important. I believe a win in Michigan would turn the tide for Ohio if it is in fact still favoring Hillary.

Florida will take huge effort, as there's a lot of older, regular voters there. Turn out has to be huge and he needs to come out with at least 40% in Florida, more would obviously be preferred because he has to play catch up. While he doesn't need to win Florida to catch up, he would have to pull big wins in Ohio/Michigan to make up for that loss and help narrow the gap which will be crucial to maintain momentum. Illinois is going to be another potential hole in the boat. There's not a huge amount of Sanders support there according to Preliminary polls, but in the next week we will find out what kind of damage it could do.

There's still Pennsylvania, New York and Maryland coming up next month, so if he can manage to close the gap and show he is a more threatening opponent than anyone ever anticipated, those are certainly open to swaying Sanders.

And THEN, if he is STILL at least within a couple hundred delegates of Hillary, California is in June and worth 475 delegates. We all know they can swing Sanders easily. Lots of youth, lots of progressives and liberals. New Jersey is also a big ticket that month, and it will depend a lot on how the candidates are stacking up to see how they swing. That state is another mixed bag.


In conclusion, it's a long shot. But it's not as out of reach as it seems. Sanders has been exciting crowds and getting huge turnouts. He is doing best by far among the white population which many of these states have the most of. Excluding California, which is late to vote and also liberal even though there's a big Hispanic population. Clinton is nearly done winning these 70-85% victories, there's not many southern black states left.
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Sanvich Hoovy
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Sanvich Hoovy » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:48 pm

Narwhal go talk to your friends and family about Bernie. I've been doing it for a couple weeks now and people are pretty excited for him. All we need to do is convince people to actually vote, because high voter turnouts have consistently translated to wins for Bernie. Even if we don't win, the number of delegates is proportionally distributed so, and I emphasize this, EVERY VOTE COUNTS. Shit dude we have early voting they don't even have to go anywhere. Just tell people this is the only way to prevent a Trump vs. Hilary race and people will listen. Florida's important, so we should at least make an effort to score him some points here, or else who are we to complain when he loses. If there's a time to get up, get mad, and do something, this is it. We're up to bat.
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narwal
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by narwal » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:55 pm

Friends are all voting for Bernie. Family is old Cubans, so uh, nah.

However, my father, who is Republican as Republican can be (Here he is speaking at the 2012 Republican National Convention), currently hates every Republican candidate that's still in the race (other than Kasich). He hates Hillary, too.

But he has laid the following on me: "As much as I hate it, I'm starting to admire this communist Jew."

So we'll see how that goes. If it's Trump v Sanders, he's voting Sanders. Trump v Hillary, he's not voting. [Other Republican] v Sanders... jury's still out.
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by KoD » Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:23 pm

Close close race in Michigan, Sanders currently ahead by 20,000 votes with 67% reporting. 50.6% Sanders 47.6% Clinton

Still got a ways to go but another big win for Sanders appears to be on deck.

This was a state that had polls like this:

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Django » Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:04 pm

So i guess is Clinton vs Trump. Literally this...



As stated, America is STUPID!
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narwal
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by narwal » Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:05 pm

Holy shit KoD, that's fucking awesome. Gotta start seeing this shit glass-half-full.
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by jermm » Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:41 pm

cali isn't that liberal. 2008 had prop 8 pass, we voted for the govenator twice, Clinton won in the 2008 primary
(though it was when we voted NOT IN FUCKING JUNE)

2010 had weed lose 53 - 46, 2012 had the death penalty upheld 52 - 48, like there are a ton of moderate democrats.

(in the bay at least,) housing probably should be his focus. shits crazy around here, like everyone not in a tech job is getting priced out. how much the feds can do is limited but a housing / transit package that gets more units / rent control and helps out the growing traffic shitshow can probably get him a win
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by Waterbear » Wed Mar 09, 2016 7:06 pm

do you take the 101 to work jermm
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Post by jermm » Wed Mar 09, 2016 7:57 pm

thankfully my route is:

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until i move out of my parents house.

which may be never.
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